Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5645 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day OH 5645 DCA 07:39 → CVG 09:14 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5673 DCA 18:44 → CVG 20:18 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5645 PSA	DCA 07:39	CVG 09:14	15%	4%	1.1%	no record
OH 5647 PSA	DCA 15:06	CVG 16:51	28%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 5673 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 18:44	CVG 20:18	31%	8%	1.1%	60%
DL 5229 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 09:13	CVG 10:55	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 5221 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 14:45	CVG 16:22	31%	13%	2.3%	69%
DL 5134 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 19:30	CVG 21:11	35%	19%	3.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON