Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5108 at 07:32 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 5108 DCA 07:32 → DAY 09:06 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 5131 DCA 19:18 → DAY 20:52 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5108 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:32	DAY 09:06	11%	6%	1.2%	80%
AA 5473 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:44	DAY 12:18	18%	8%	1.1%	54%
AA 5284 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:30	DAY 16:04	22%	11%	1.1%	51%
AA 5131 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:18	DAY 20:52	25%	13%	1.4%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON