Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 4435 at 11:58, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4435 Republic	DCA 11:58	DSM 13:51	9%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	5h 45m	98%	92%
American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	2h 55m Charlotte	CLT 10:33 → DSM 12:07AA 2962	6h 59m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	6h 34m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	6h 25m	97%	86%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	3h 42m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DSM 14:10UA 6166 · flown by Mesa	9h 10m	100%	82%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → DSM 10:22UA 466	4h 52m	96%	82%
United Details →	DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061	3h 26m Chicago	ORD 13:09 → DSM 14:40UA 1658	7h 15m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → DSM 09:44DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 44m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON