tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 4789 Republic DCA 11:32 ECP 13:05 14% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 48m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 6h 56m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 6h 54m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 6h 28m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521 3h 14m Charlotte CLT 10:52 → ECP 11:30AA 5262 · flown by PSA 6h 22m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:55 → DFW 07:06AA 2007 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:33 → ECP 11:38AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 7h 43m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:05 → ECP 21:11AA 3628 · flown by Envoy 6h 58m 90% 76%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 56m Houston IAH 09:09 → ECP 11:02UA 4225 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 02m 95% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON