Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 4389 at 09:04, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4389 Republic	DCA 09:04	EYW 12:20	15%	3%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168	7h 07m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472	7h 23m	99%	86%
American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	3h 28m Charlotte	CLT 11:06 → EYW 13:36AA 1816	7h 28m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → EYW 19:56DL 2815	7h 29m	98%	85%
American Details →	DCA 08:20 → MIA 11:17AA 422	1h 14m Miami	MIA 12:31 → EYW 13:39AA 3577 · flown by Envoy	5h 19m	90%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON