Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 379 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day B6 379 DCA 06:00 → FLL 08:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest B6 1579 DCA 16:37 → FLL 19:26 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 379 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:00	FLL 08:32	10%	4%	1.0%	77%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DCA 08:12	FLL 11:09	13%	4%	0.8%	89%
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:59	FLL 10:40	14%	5%	0.9%	81%
WN 1492 Southwest	DCA 11:41	FLL 14:25	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
B6 1979 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:02	FLL 21:51	33%	13%	1.2%	56%
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 16:37	FLL 19:26	35%	14%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON