tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 5039 at 11:30, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 11:30 GRR 13:19 21% 8% 1.5% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547 5h 43m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 3h 23m Minneapolis MSP 12:48 → GRR 15:17DL 1245 7h 32m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058 6h 58m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 2h 51m Chicago ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297 6h 20m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 50m Minneapolis MSP 08:25 → GRR 10:53DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest 4h 53m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958 2h 21m Minneapolis MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555 6h 26m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061 3h 15m Chicago ORD 12:58 → GRR 15:13UA 2751 6h 48m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:55 → DFW 07:06AA 2007 1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:53 → GRR 12:24AA 3167 7h 29m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet 1h 27m Newark EWR 19:30 → GRR 21:50UA 3580 · flown by Republic 5h 20m 70% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON