tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4783 at 08:46 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4783 Republic DCA 08:46 GSO 10:34 10% 2% 1.0% no record
OH 5140 PSA DCA 17:30 GSO 18:48 31% 10% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → GSO 11:34DL 3052 5h 34m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539 6h 30m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521 3h 34m Charlotte CLT 11:12 → GSO 12:17AA 5796 · flown by Piedmont 6h 09m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:49 → GSO 14:04DL 3060 6h 04m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 16:30 → GSO 17:50DL 3050 5h 23m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:29 → ORD 07:39AA 523 2h 24m Chicago ORD 10:03 → GSO 12:58AA 4144 · flown by Envoy 6h 29m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 25m Detroit DTW 08:54 → GSO 10:41DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor 4h 41m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → DCA 11:30 → ORD 12:40AA 808 2h 45m Chicago ORD 15:25 → GSO 18:31AA 4118 · flown by Envoy 7h 01m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:10 → EWR 16:32UA 4560 · flown by GoJet 55m Newark EWR 17:27 → GSO 19:23UA 4509 · flown by GoJet 4h 13m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON