Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5267 DCA 08:38 → GSP 10:09 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest OH 5093 DCA 14:46 → GSP 16:18 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5267 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:38	GSP 10:09	19%	4%	1.1%	79%
AA 5044 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:32	GSP 21:04	26%	10%	1.2%	100%worse than usual
OH 5093 PSA	DCA 14:46	GSP 16:18	27%	9%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON