Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1450 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1450 DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OH 5591 DCA 13:44 → IAH 15:47 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1450 United Flight history →	DCA 06:00	IAH 08:13	4%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:59	IAH 15:18	12%	4%	0.7%	91%
OH 5496 PSA	DCA 07:36	IAH 09:38	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	16%	6%	0.7%	73%
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:27	18%	7%	0.7%	66%
OH 5411 PSA	DCA 20:42	IAH 22:44	24%	9%	1.1%	no record
OH 5591 PSA	DCA 13:44	IAH 15:47	25%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON