Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4784 at 08:49 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day YX 4784 DCA 08:49 → ILM 10:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5133 DCA 17:53 → ILM 19:28 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4784 Republic	DCA 08:49	ILM 10:32	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 5313 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:33	ILM 15:04	18%	5%	1.3%	79%
AA 5133 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:53	ILM 19:28	23%	9%	1.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON