Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4695 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day YX 4695 DCA 06:11 → IND 08:08 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4501 DCA 17:29 → IND 19:31 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4695 Republic	DCA 06:11	IND 08:08	4%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 4701 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:40	IND 11:39	10%	2%	0.8%	88%
AA 4452 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:35	IND 16:35	13%	4%	0.7%	77%
AA 4520 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:35	IND 21:30	17%	5%	0.9%	71%
OH 5587 PSA	DCA 12:01	IND 13:48	21%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 4501 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:29	IND 19:31	21%	6%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON