Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1850 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1850 DCA 07:02 → JAX 09:19 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1829 DCA 15:13 → JAX 17:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1850 American	DCA 07:02	JAX 09:19	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3730 Envoy	DCA 21:04	JAX 23:13	17%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 1829 American	DCA 15:13	JAX 17:29	19%	8%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON