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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5802 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 5802 DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest YX 5853 DCA 17:04 → JFK 18:27 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 5802 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:02 JFK 07:25 4% 2% 1.5% 93%
AA 4551 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:30 JFK 07:57 5% 2% 1.6% 94%
B6 254 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 06:21 JFK 07:30 8% 3% 1.6% 91%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 11:07 JFK 12:31 14% 4% 1.5% 94%
AA 4522 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 13:14 JFK 14:47 20% 7% 1.2% 72%
AA 4629 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 18:24 JFK 19:47 27% 7% 2.0% 71%
YX 5853 Republic DCA 17:04 JFK 18:27 33% 8% 2.0% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON