tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2149 American DCA 08:11 LAS 10:31 12% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 2232 Southwest DCA 16:36 LAS 18:32 28% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 31m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 10h 13m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 00m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 08:01 → STL 09:19WN 1519 3h 37m St Louis STL 12:56 → LAS 14:32WN 4079 9h 31m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 41m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 30m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 7h 12m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521 3h 00m Charlotte CLT 10:38 → LAS 12:17AA 2470 9h 09m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 39m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 10h 17m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → DCA 16:37 → FLL 19:26B6 1579 1h 01m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:27 → LAS 22:32B6 607 8h 55m 66% 48%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:40 → MIA 16:30AA 1612 52m Miami MIA 17:22 → LAS 19:43AA 3321 9h 03m 67% 46%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:41B6 2954 1h 18m Boston BOS 19:59 → LAS 22:47B6 777 8h 47m 62% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON