Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 5843 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–46%.

Safest bet that day YX 5843 DCA 06:18 → LGA 07:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5763 DCA 17:40 → LGA 18:59 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5843 Republic	DCA 06:18	LGA 07:40	7%	3%	2.7%	no record
AA 4403 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:54	LGA 08:16	8%	3%	2.7%	90%
YX 4366 Republic	DCA 10:16	LGA 11:38	20%	5%	1.7%	no record
DL 5772 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:15	LGA 09:33	21%	5%	2.0%	81%
YX 4546 Republic	DCA 11:27	LGA 12:49	22%	7%	1.7%	no record
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:00	LGA 12:09	29%	7%	2.2%	75%
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:30	LGA 14:53	34%	14%	2.0%	67%
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:59	LGA 15:31	34%	15%	1.9%	62%
YX 4569 Republic	DCA 15:01	LGA 16:23	38%	13%	1.6%	no record
YX 4636 Republic	DCA 17:25	LGA 18:59	38%	14%	2.1%	no record
YX 4583 Republic	DCA 18:29	LGA 19:50	41%	16%	2.3%	no record
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:40	LGA 21:04	43%	22%	2.7%	48%
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:40	LGA 18:59	46%	17%	2.6%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON