Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3627 at 17:09, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3627 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 17:09	LIT 19:00	19%	5%	0.8%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040	6h 03m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	5h 56m	99%	89%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:38 → LIT 12:58AA 3898 · flown by Envoy	6h 59m	99%	87%
American Details →	DCA 09:59 → DFW 12:11AA 795	3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:39 → LIT 16:59AA 4309 · flown by Envoy	8h 00m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → LIT 18:31DL 2061	7h 04m	98%	84%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 27m Houston	IAH 09:40 → LIT 11:13UA 4371 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 13m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → LIT 21:34DL 2701	6h 34m	96%	83%
United Details →	DCA 12:59 → IAH 15:18UA 382	3h 02m Houston	IAH 18:20 → LIT 20:01UA 6150 · flown by Mesa	8h 02m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	48m Charlotte	CLT 20:25 → LIT 21:38AA 3692 · flown by Envoy	4h 48m	72%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON