Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1566 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1566 DCA 05:59 → MCI 07:44 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1322 DCA 19:36 → MCI 21:19 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1566 Southwest	DCA 05:59	MCI 07:44	2%	1%	0.9%	no record
AA 2853 American	DCA 07:34	MCI 09:30	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5472 PSA	DCA 13:58	MCI 15:41	24%	6%	1.5%	no record
OH 5423 PSA	DCA 20:03	MCI 21:46	25%	7%	1.4%	no record
WN 1498 Southwest	DCA 15:41	MCI 17:24	27%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 1322 Southwest	DCA 19:36	MCI 21:19	28%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON