Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1500 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1500 DCA 06:11 → MCO 08:39 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2523 DCA 18:55 → MCO 21:17 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1500 Southwest	DCA 06:11	MCO 08:39	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:59	MCO 09:20	6%	2%	0.9%	82%
AA 592 American Flight history →	DCA 06:30	MCO 08:55	6%	2%	0.9%	90%
B6 2423 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:25	MCO 09:46	11%	4%	0.9%	79%
AA 1153 American Flight history →	DCA 11:01	MCO 13:33	12%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	DCA 08:19	MCO 10:50	14%	3%	0.9%	74%
WN 4891 Southwest	DCA 12:41	MCO 15:07	15%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 2509 American Flight history →	DCA 13:55	MCO 16:27	18%	7%	1.5%	76%
B6 1923 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:50	MCO 14:04	18%	7%	0.8%	71%
DL 1621 Delta	DCA 14:48	MCO 17:08	20%	6%	4.3%	no record
AA 2139 American Flight history →	DCA 20:07	MCO 22:36	22%	9%	1.0%	57%
WN 1502 Southwest	DCA 17:36	MCO 20:03	29%	8%	0.9%	no record
B6 2523 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:55	MCO 21:17	35%	16%	1.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON