Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2276 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2276 DCA 07:57 → MDW 09:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 818 DCA 18:01 → MDW 19:08 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2276 Southwest	DCA 07:57	MDW 09:04	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1504 Southwest	DCA 09:32	MDW 10:39	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2938 Southwest	DCA 13:06	MDW 14:13	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 1506 Southwest	DCA 15:01	MDW 16:08	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1508 Southwest	DCA 20:41	MDW 21:49	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 818 Southwest	DCA 18:01	MDW 19:08	19%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON