Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5150 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:03	MHT 11:51	14%	3%	0.8%	79%
AA 5295 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:36	MHT 16:18	23%	9%	0.7%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	46m Charlotte	CLT 08:24 → MHT 10:49AA 5661 · flown by PSA	4h 41m	93%	84%
American Details →	DCA 10:19 → ORD 11:29AA 2023	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 14:10 → MHT 17:37AA 3720 · flown by Envoy	7h 18m	97%	83%
American Details →	DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:46AA 2040	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 19:32 → MHT 21:56AA 5033 · flown by PSA	6h 41m	96%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON