Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1178 DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 973 DCA 17:25 → MIA 20:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1178 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:56	5%	2%	1.2%	93%
AA 2344 American Flight history →	DCA 04:53	MIA 07:45	9%	2%	1.2%	96%
AA 401 American Flight history →	DCA 09:56	MIA 12:46	14%	3%	1.0%	93%
AA 422 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	MIA 11:17	17%	4%	1.1%	84%
AA 1627 American Flight history →	DCA 11:55	MIA 14:38	23%	6%	1.2%	76%
AA 1612 American Flight history →	DCA 13:40	MIA 16:30	28%	9%	1.1%	62%
DL 2576 Delta Flight history →	DCA 14:43	MIA 17:33	31%	10%	0.8%	67%
AA 582 American	DCA 19:06	MIA 21:54	31%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 1299 American	DCA 14:56	MIA 17:46	31%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 973 American	DCA 17:25	MIA 20:15	37%	12%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON