Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1193 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1193 DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OH 5652 DCA 15:23 → MSP 17:09 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1193 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	MSP 07:35	5%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 1493 Delta Flight history →	DCA 07:45	MSP 09:25	7%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2958 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:00	MSP 13:41	13%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 1523 Delta	DCA 15:01	MSP 16:49	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2963 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:59	MSP 20:52	16%	6%	0.6%	74%
OH 5183 PSA	DCA 08:49	MSP 10:52	18%	4%	1.0%	no record
OH 5652 PSA	DCA 15:23	MSP 17:09	26%	8%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON