Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2586 at 11:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2586 DCA 11:25 → MSY 13:08 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1514 DCA 20:31 → MSY 22:07 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2586 American	DCA 11:25	MSY 13:08	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5274 PSA	DCA 07:45	MSY 09:21	12%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 1513 Southwest	DCA 11:52	MSY 13:29	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1788 American Flight history →	DCA 14:56	MSY 16:38	17%	6%	0.8%	64%
WN 1514 Southwest	DCA 20:31	MSY 22:07	24%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON