Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4428 Republic	DCA 09:57	MYR 11:56	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
YX 4434 Republic	DCA 17:26	MYR 19:14	16%	6%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145	4h 39m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047	4h 47m	98%	86%
American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 10:13 → MYR 11:23AA 2431	5h 15m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	5h 00m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	6h 40m	98%	80%
American Details →	DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:46AA 2040	3h 17m Charlotte	CLT 20:03 → MYR 21:13AA 1085	5h 58m	96%	74%
United Details →	DCA 11:00 → EWR 12:22UA 4508 · flown by GoJet	3h 33m Newark	EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic	7h 03m	96%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON