tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2475 at 14:22 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2475 American DCA 14:22 OKC 16:36 17% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 1242 Southwest DCA 15:36 OKC 17:42 28% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020 7h 12m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521 2h 57m Charlotte CLT 10:35 → OKC 12:22AA 1626 7h 14m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 10:58 → IAH 13:19UA 2190 3h 16m Houston IAH 16:35 → OKC 18:15UA 6334 · flown by Mesa 8h 17m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 54m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 8h 55m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 7h 06m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 33m Houston IAH 09:46 → OKC 11:22UA 4344 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 22m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:55 → DFW 07:06AA 2007 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → OKC 12:07AA 3099 8h 12m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:54 → ORD 09:14AA 2633 2h 40m Chicago ORD 11:54 → OKC 14:07AA 6337 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 54m Charlotte CLT 20:31 → OKC 22:17AA 768 5h 27m 75% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON