Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5608 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5608 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:15	OMA 10:13	10%	2%	0.7%	87%
WN 1516 Southwest	DCA 16:56	OMA 18:47	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125	7h 45m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest	6h 57m	99%	89%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	3h 42m Houston	IAH 11:55 → OMA 14:11UA 6188 · flown by Mesa	9h 11m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → OMA 09:48DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	4h 48m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	6h 21m	97%	84%
United Details →	DCA 07:41 → ORD 08:53UA 441	3h 47m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → OMA 14:17UA 247	7h 36m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	2h 00m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	5h 47m	95%	82%
United Details →	DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697	1h 14m Houston	IAH 11:55 → OMA 14:15UA 1936	6h 55m	93%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON