Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 38m	98%	87%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635	9h 43m	99%	83%
American Details →	DCA 04:55 → DFW 07:06AA 2007	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → ONT 12:10AA 2956	10h 15m	100%	82%
American Details →	DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006	1h 17m Phoenix	PHX 10:56 → ONT 12:29AA 2661	7h 40m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891	9h 03m	98%	78%
American Details →	DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623	3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:58 → ONT 19:16AA 3006	10h 17m	99%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON