Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1793 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1793 DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1189 DCA 17:00 → ORD 18:11 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1793 United Flight history →	DCA 06:30	ORD 07:46	7%	2%	1.4%	92%
UA 441 United Flight history →	DCA 07:41	ORD 08:53	9%	3%	1.3%	86%
AA 523 American Flight history →	DCA 06:29	ORD 07:39	10%	3%	2.6%	78%
UA 2774 United Flight history →	DCA 09:30	ORD 10:50	11%	4%	1.3%	94%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	DCA 08:25	ORD 09:43	11%	4%	1.2%	93%
AA 2633 American Flight history →	DCA 07:54	ORD 09:14	11%	4%	1.8%	87%
UA 351 United Flight history →	DCA 09:32	ORD 10:53	14%	5%	1.0%	88%
AA 522 American	DCA 08:52	ORD 10:15	15%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 488 American	DCA 20:36	ORD 22:05	16%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 808 American Flight history →	DCA 11:30	ORD 12:40	16%	6%	1.8%	90%
AA 2023 American Flight history →	DCA 10:19	ORD 11:29	17%	6%	1.4%	81%
UA 2803 United	DCA 11:57	ORD 13:10	18%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 2284 American	DCA 13:54	ORD 15:10	19%	9%	1.9%	no record
UA 1888 United Flight history →	DCA 14:00	ORD 15:18	19%	8%	1.3%	71%
UA 511 United Flight history →	DCA 13:00	ORD 14:18	20%	8%	1.2%	76%
UA 2218 United Flight history →	DCA 20:08	ORD 21:17	22%	8%	1.1%	63%
AA 1637 American Flight history →	DCA 15:58	ORD 17:09	23%	10%	1.6%	74%
AA 1221 American	DCA 15:06	ORD 16:23	23%	9%	1.6%	no record
UA 1193 United Flight history →	DCA 19:10	ORD 20:32	23%	8%	1.2%	58%
UA 1325 United Flight history →	DCA 15:30	ORD 16:52	24%	8%	1.2%	66%
AA 3148 American	DCA 18:20	ORD 19:30	28%	11%	1.9%	no record
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 18:10	ORD 19:32	28%	10%	1.1%	51%
UA 654 United Flight history →	DCA 17:05	ORD 18:30	31%	10%	1.2%	50%
AA 1189 American Flight history →	DCA 17:00	ORD 18:11	31%	12%	1.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON