Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5509 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:06	ORF 11:19	17%	7%	1.9%	75%
AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:04	ORF 17:11	20%	10%	2.0%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755	5h 28m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	2h 34m Detroit	DTW 10:03 → ORF 11:58DL 3066	5h 58m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:16DL 2925	6h 16m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	6h 50m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:30DL 2731	6h 30m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346	6h 27m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic	2h 25m New York	JFK 09:50 → ORF 11:27DL 5370 · flown by Endeavor	5h 25m	99%	82%
United Details →	DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 12:16 → ORF 15:41UA 2807	7h 16m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	47m Charlotte	CLT 20:24 → ORF 21:45AA 5622 · flown by PSA	3h 55m	71%	53%
JetBlue Details →	DCA 16:37 → FLL 19:26B6 1579	1h 04m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:30 → ORF 22:52B6 1800	6h 15m	67%	48%
JetBlue Details →	DCA 14:25 → BOS 16:00B6 1354	48m Boston	BOS 16:48 → ORF 18:38B6 1813	4h 13m	59%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON