Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 9 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 17:16	PDX 20:04	19%	5%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661	9h 41m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 35m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 58m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 25m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 36m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 29m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic	1h 05m New York	JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36DL 1574	8h 34m	96%	85%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 17m Houston	IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740	8h 56m	98%	85%
United Details →	DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061	3h 43m Chicago	ORD 13:26 → PDX 15:56UA 1554	10h 31m	100%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	49m Detroit	DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913	7h 19m	64%	54%
Alaska Details →	DCA 10:58 → SAN 13:17AS 15	46m San Diego	SAN 14:03 → PDX 16:36AS 1402	8h 38m	59%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON