tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4801 at 17:33 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4801 Republic DCA 17:33 PHL 18:57 16% 5% 0.8% no record
OH 5304 PSA DCA 13:39 PHL 14:38 27% 10% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679 6h 58m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 2h 41m Detroit DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331 5h 46m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 4h 57m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521 2h 04m Charlotte CLT 09:42 → PHL 11:35AA 2565 5h 27m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 48m Chicago ORD 09:34 → PHL 12:48UA 729 6h 18m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:31 → DTW 09:06AA 5660 · flown by PSA 2h 19m Detroit DTW 11:25 → PHL 13:16AA 5480 · flown by PSA 5h 45m 96% 85%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 08:01 → STL 09:19WN 1519 1h 22m St Louis STL 10:41 → PHL 14:15WN 1109 6h 14m 94% 84%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:30 → MCO 08:55AA 592 2h 11m Orlando MCO 11:06 → PHL 13:54AA 629 7h 24m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:41B6 2954 1h 46m Boston BOS 20:27 → PHL 22:06B6 159 5h 06m 71% 49%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 11:00 → BOS 12:35B6 2454 47m Boston BOS 13:22 → PHL 15:00B6 1859 4h 00m 65% 48%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:58 → ORD 17:09AA 1637 48m Chicago ORD 17:57 → PHL 21:28AA 597 5h 30m 65% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON