Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2006 DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3191 DCA 18:01 → PHX 19:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2006 American Flight history →	DCA 07:49	PHX 09:39	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 1218 American Flight history →	DCA 10:00	PHX 11:44	15%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 3191 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	PHX 19:50	18%	7%	0.7%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 44m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	7h 02m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	7h 03m	90%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON