Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4446 DCA 13:14 → PIT 14:39 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 5094 DCA 16:45 → PIT 17:54 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4446 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:14	PIT 14:39	12%	3%	0.9%	88%
OH 5402 PSA	DCA 07:41	PIT 08:50	13%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 4763 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:35	PIT 21:45	18%	4%	1.1%	69%
AA 5094 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:45	PIT 17:54	21%	6%	1.4%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON