Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5449 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Safest bet that day OH 5449 DCA 08:24 → PNS 09:41 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5544 DCA 19:21 → PNS 21:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5449 PSA	DCA 08:24	PNS 09:41	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
OH 5139 PSA	DCA 15:06	PNS 16:26	31%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 5544 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:21	PNS 21:00	31%	13%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON