Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5177 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day OH 5177 DCA 07:01 → PVD 08:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5438 DCA 18:34 → PVD 20:04 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5177 PSA	DCA 07:01	PVD 08:33	8%	3%	1.9%	no record
WN 1525 Southwest	DCA 10:46	PVD 12:18	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 5619 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:01	PVD 11:33	11%	5%	1.6%	88%
AA 2641 American	DCA 13:11	PVD 14:52	12%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 1691 Southwest	DCA 16:56	PVD 18:27	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
OH 5173 PSA	DCA 15:00	PVD 16:31	22%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 5438 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 18:34	PVD 20:04	25%	9%	2.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON