Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1423 American Flight history →	DCA 14:37	PWM 16:32	18%	7%	0.8%	87%
AA 5528 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:03	PWM 11:54	19%	5%	1.5%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426	5h 55m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558	2h 56m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821	6h 22m	98%	85%
American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → PWM 12:53AA 1744	6h 45m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	7h 00m	99%	85%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → PWM 14:31UA 2804	8h 01m	99%	80%
United Details →	DCA 08:30 → EWR 09:52UA 4430 · flown by GoJet	2h 07m Newark	EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic	4h 55m	96%	80%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	3h 39m Charlotte	CLT 13:52 → PWM 16:31AA 1747	8h 01m	96%	79%
American Details →	DCA 10:19 → ORD 11:29AA 2023	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 13:06 → PWM 16:41AA 4741 · flown by Republic	6h 22m	92%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON