Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5027 PSA	DCA 09:47	ROC 11:09	18%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 5457 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:37	ROC 16:59	28%	8%	2.1%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → ROC 12:14AA 2742	6h 06m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511	5h 31m	98%	87%
American Details →	DCA 06:53 → BOS 08:37AA 3240	1h 18m Boston	BOS 09:55 → ROC 11:30AA 4171 · flown by Envoy	4h 37m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic	1h 55m New York	JFK 09:20 → ROC 10:53DL 5330 · flown by Endeavor	4h 51m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047	7h 04m	99%	80%
American Details →	DCA 10:41 → BOS 12:25AA 1015	3h 54m Boston	BOS 16:19 → ROC 17:57AA 4709 · flown by Republic	7h 16m	100%	76%
JetBlue Details →	DCA 07:25 → MCO 09:46B6 2423	55m Orlando	MCO 10:41 → ROC 13:28B6 1042	6h 03m	87%	74%
United Details →	DCA 09:32 → ORD 10:53UA 351	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ROC 16:45UA 1239	7h 13m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 08:15 → LGA 09:33DL 5772 · flown by Republic	46m New York	LGA 10:19 → ROC 11:53DL 5340 · flown by Endeavor	3h 38m	66%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON