tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 2916 at 08:19, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2916 American Flight history → DCA 08:19 RSW 11:08 15% 5% 2.6% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 11m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → RSW 13:14UA 494 7h 14m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 7h 27m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 6h 28m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 5h 35m 97% 84%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 08:01 → STL 09:19WN 1519 1h 02m St Louis STL 10:21 → RSW 13:58WN 651 5h 57m 91% 83%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 3h 05m Chicago ORD 10:51 → RSW 14:48UA 2137 8h 18m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 08m Detroit DTW 08:37 → RSW 11:35DL 2001 5h 35m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:15 → LGA 09:33DL 5772 · flown by Republic 47m New York LGA 10:20 → RSW 13:17DL 379 5h 02m 67% 53%
UnitedDetails → DCA 13:00 → EWR 14:22UA 4442 · flown by GoJet 58m Newark EWR 15:20 → RSW 18:24UA 1832 5h 24m 65% 45%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet 1h 05m Newark EWR 19:08 → RSW 22:24UA 2188 5h 54m 62% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON