tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 15 Alaska Flight history → DCA 10:58 SAN 13:17 23% 4% 0.9% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 2h 13m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 39m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121 7h 38m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843 8h 39m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic 1h 30m New York JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55DL 683 8h 53m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:15DL 924 9h 59m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 16m Detroit DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492 7h 27m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521 3h 37m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466 9h 57m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 51m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:00 → ORD 18:11AA 1189 58m Chicago ORD 19:09 → SAN 21:53AA 1861 7h 53m 67% 48%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet 1h 22m Newark EWR 19:25 → SAN 22:19UA 1102 8h 49m 68% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON