Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1947 American Flight history →	DCA 18:32	SAT 21:13	26%	9%	0.7%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667	6h 49m	97%	89%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 22m Houston	IAH 09:35 → SAT 10:47UA 1371	5h 47m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	6h 38m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465	7h 55m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	7h 10m	98%	85%
American Details →	DCA 04:55 → DFW 07:06AA 2007	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → SAT 10:26AA 2759	6h 31m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	56m Detroit	DTW 08:25 → SAT 10:34DL 788	5h 34m	95%	84%
American Details →	DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006	2h 43m Phoenix	PHX 12:22 → SAT 16:44AA 570	9h 55m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365	5h 53m	75%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON