Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5260 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 5260 DCA 08:20 → SAV 10:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 5384 DCA 20:01 → SAV 21:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5260 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:20	SAV 10:40	16%	5%	1.6%	88%
OH 5241 PSA	DCA 12:42	SAV 14:28	20%	6%	1.7%	no record
AA 5384 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:01	SAV 21:57	28%	11%	2.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON