Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 786 DCA 16:35 → SEA 19:41 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest AS 3 DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 786 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:35	SEA 19:41	17%	6%	0.7%	66%
AS 1 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 08:00	SEA 10:58	18%	4%	0.7%	82%
AS 3 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 17:00	SEA 19:59	21%	6%	0.7%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 15m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	8h 50m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON