Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 369 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 369 DCA 07:55 → SFO 10:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 7 DCA 18:59 → SFO 21:56 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 369 United Flight history →	DCA 07:55	SFO 10:50	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 2166 United	DCA 17:59	SFO 21:03	23%	11%	0.6%	no record
AS 7 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 18:59	SFO 21:56	26%	12%	0.8%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	8h 50m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 24m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 32m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON