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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 9h 01m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 25m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 49m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:55 → DFW 07:06AA 2007 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:25 → SJC 11:18AA 2046 9h 23m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 55m Chicago ORD 09:41 → SJC 12:25UA 307 8h 55m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:58 → SJC 13:56AA 2834 9h 57m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 08:00 → SEA 10:58AS 1 2h 41m Seattle SEA 13:39 → SJC 15:44AS 657 10h 44m 99% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON