Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 820 Delta Flight history →	DCA 17:45	SLC 20:41	18%	5%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 08:15 → OMA 10:13DL 5608 · flown by Republic	2h 26m Omaha	OMA 12:39 → SLC 14:24DL 3815 · flown by SkyWest	8h 09m	98%	94%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	8h 34m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 10m	99%	90%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 49m Houston	IAH 10:02 → SLC 12:37UA 2242	8h 37m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:08 → BNA 11:08DL 5708 · flown by Republic	2h 53m Nashville	BNA 14:01 → SLC 16:37DL 1593	8h 29m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:59 → MCO 09:20DL 1003	1h 25m Orlando	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	8h 22m	97%	87%
American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → SLC 12:29AA 1895	8h 21m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	56m Detroit	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	6h 21m	95%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON