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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 59m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 54m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:21 → SNA 13:48AA 2465 9h 49m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 25m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 56m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:55 → DFW 07:06AA 2007 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:28 → SNA 09:55AA 2114 8h 00m 95% 82%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 08:00 → SEA 10:58AS 1 3h 04m Seattle SEA 14:02 → SNA 16:54AS 773 11h 54m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:58 → ORD 17:09AA 1637 48m Chicago ORD 17:57 → SNA 20:34AA 1179 7h 36m 65% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON