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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 2584 at 08:55, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2584 American Flight history → DCA 08:55 SRQ 11:31 17% 5% 1.6% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:20DL 3115 7h 20m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 7h 01m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 6h 52m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 10:18 → SRQ 12:14AA 1452 6h 06m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 3h 24m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 8h 42m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:46AA 2040 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 19:29 → SRQ 21:25AA 2604 6h 10m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → EWR 07:19UA 4167 · flown by GoJet 1h 11m Newark EWR 08:30 → SRQ 11:19UA 2772 5h 19m 95% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON