Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1519 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1519 DCA 08:01 → STL 09:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest WN 398 DCA 18:51 → STL 20:09 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1519 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 08:01	STL 09:19	9%	2%	0.6%	78%
YX 4436 Republic	DCA 08:43	STL 10:11	14%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1521 Southwest	DCA 12:01	STL 13:19	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 4680 Republic	DCA 19:59	STL 21:27	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3066 American	DCA 15:06	STL 16:49	21%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 1522 Southwest	DCA 15:26	STL 16:44	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 398 Southwest	DCA 18:51	STL 20:09	26%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON