tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5170 PSA DCA 10:28 SYR 12:00 17% 7% 1.3% no record
YX 4555 Republic DCA 15:40 SYR 17:10 19% 7% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 09:15 → SYR 11:25DL 1375 5h 25m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → SYR 14:48DL 2991 5h 48m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic 1h 45m New York JFK 09:10 → SYR 10:41DL 5436 · flown by Endeavor 4h 39m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 10:39 → SYR 12:42AA 2730 6h 34m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → SYR 17:59DL 2690 7h 43m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518 3h 37m Charlotte CLT 13:50 → SYR 15:54AA 1950 7h 24m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 09:32 → ORD 10:53UA 351 3h 02m Chicago ORD 13:55 → SYR 16:48UA 2343 7h 16m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:00 → ORD 15:18UA 1888 2h 51m Chicago ORD 18:09 → SYR 21:09UA 2481 7h 09m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 13:30 → LGA 14:53DL 5747 · flown by Republic 59m New York LGA 15:52 → SYR 17:26DL 5062 · flown by Endeavor 3h 55m 64% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON